The competitive landscape in the AI market is rapidly shifting, and ChatGPT’s long-held dominance is beginning to falter. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “red flag” within the company as competitors gained momentum and user growth slowed. According to new data published by Sensor Tower, ChatGPT’s global monthly active user count increased by only 6% between August and November 2025, reaching approximately 810 million.
Sam Altman’s red flag: Competition between OpenAI and Google intensifies
During the same period, Google’s AI application Gemini grew by 30%, demonstrating the intensity of market competition. In response to these developments, Altman announced in a memo to employees that plans such as ad integration have been postponed. The company will direct all its resources to improving ChatGPT’s core functionality and user experience.
Google’s Gemini 3, unveiled in November, has achieved remarkable success in industry-standard benchmarking tests. Gemini 3, which scored 37.4 on Humanity’s Last Exam, surpassed the record of 31.64 held by OpenAI’s GPT-5 Pro model. In response to this threat, OpenAI reportedly plans to release GPT-5.2 as early as December 9th.
ChatGPT has entered a critical juncture in its market leadership, which it has maintained since its launch. While it still holds 50% of global downloads and 55% of monthly active users, its market share has declined by 3 points in the last three months. The company’s challenges aren’t limited to user numbers. According to Microsoft’s reports, OpenAI lost $11.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the company’s total losses could reach $140 billion by 2029. In contrast, Google continues to generate approximately $30 billion per quarter in profit from its search and software operations. Former Google AI leader Geoffrey Hinton predicts that Google, with its data centers and research power, will win this race.
Gemini’s rise was largely fueled by its viral “Nano Banana” visual creation feature, launched in September. This feature has boosted user engagement by 120% since March. As of October, Google reported that Gemini had reached 650 million monthly users.
Do you think the new features and growth rate offered by Google Gemini will be enough to completely dethrone ChatGPT?
