Elon Musk announced next month that he will “approximately double” the size of his robotaxi pilot fleet in Austin, Texas. This may seem like a win for users struggling to hail electric taxis. However, a closer look at the figures reveals that the company is far short of its promised target of having the number of “autonomous” EVs on the road by the end of the year.
Tesla is 90% Off from Reaching its 500 Vehicle Goal!
The Tesla robotaxi pilot program has been running in Austin for several months, starting in June with modified Model Y electric vehicles. While the vehicles are equipped with Hardware 4, crucially, they are not yet fully driverless. This is a “supervised” pilot program, requiring a Tesla employee to sit in the front seat. This supervisor monitors the system and keeps his finger on an “emergency stop switch” ready to immediately stop the EV if a problem arises.
Just a few weeks ago, CEO Elon Musk made a very clear promise regarding how many Tesla robotaxi vehicles will be operating in the Austin area. In a talk on the All-In Podcast published on October 31st, he stated that Tesla aims to have “500 or more” taxis in the Austin area by the end of the year.
Currently, only about 30 Model Ys are operating in the Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin. If Tesla manages to “roughly double” that number next month, the fleet size will reach only 60 vehicles. Comparing the 500 vehicles promised just weeks ago to the 60 vehicles, the difference is enormous. Tesla will have missed its year-end target by approximately 90%. For analysts and investors who follow the company’s autonomous driving announcements, this represents another major missed deadline.
The small fleet size has caused significant problems for people living in Austin trying to use the service. Users frequently see a “High Service Demand” message when they open the app. Wait times for a ride often exceed 40 minutes, making the service largely unusable for fast travel.
While more electric vehicles are certainly welcome, the need for a human supervisor on each vehicle may be the reason for such slow fleet growth. Scaling to 500 EVs would require Tesla to hire over a thousand human workers to manage multiple shifts, turning a software issue into a massive human resources problem.
This “supervised” requirement appears to be the primary reason why the robotaxi program’s growth is currently so limited. The fact that the pilot program reported seven accidents in its first few months only adds to the alarming nature of this limitation.
The slow rollout is also striking when compared to competitors’ efforts. Earlier this month, Waymo announced that it has a fleet of 2,500 active robotaxi vehicles operating across the United States. Waymo operates approximately 200 autonomous EVs in Austin alone. Surprisingly, Mr. Musk described Waymo’s figures as “rookie numbers.”
But data shows that Waymo’s fleet in Austin is already three to four times larger than the number Tesla hopes to reach next month with its expanded 60-car Model Y fleet. Ironically, Waymo’s EVs in Austin are fully driverless and, unlike Tesla’s human-monitored vehicles, don’t require a human safety officer in the front seat.
