Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that iPhone sales will fall next year (2026) compared to this year, and that Apple’s production costs will increase significantly. While global smartphone shipments are expected to decline overall in 2026, Apple will be among the brands most affected.

Apple to Experience a Larger Decline Than Competitors

Counterpoint has revised and published its global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026. According to the company’s latest Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast report, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 2.1% in 2026 due to rising component costs negatively impacting demand.

Counterpoint estimates that Apple will experience a 2.2% year-on-year decrease in shipments. This decline is expected to be larger than that of other major brands such as Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, or Oppo.

The report also states that smartphone production will become significantly more expensive next year due to rising component costs, especially memory. Research Director MS Hwang, drawing attention to cost increases, stated:

“We are currently seeing the lower segment of the market (under $200) being most severely affected. Since the beginning of the year, [Bill of Materials – BoM] costs have increased by 20% to 30%. In the mid and upper segments of the market, price increases ranged from 10% to 15%.”

However, Counterpoint emphasizes that Apple and Samsung are best positioned to cope with these rising costs. Brands selling inexpensive smartphones, on the other hand, may face significant challenges, with some models potentially becoming unviable.