The global smartphone market forecast for 2025 has been revised several times throughout the year. Initially projected at 2.6 percent, the growth rate was lowered to 0.6 percent in May. However, recent reports suggest a slightly more positive outlook for the market, particularly thanks to the accelerating growth of iOS. It appears the market will improve following the Apple event. Here are the details.

1 percent smartphone market growth forecast

IDC’s latest report predicts the market will close 2025 with 1 percent growth. One of the main reasons for this increase is the 3.9 percent growth of iOS. According to the report, there is “healthy replacement demand” in the market, which will help drive continued growth through 2026.

IDC’s Nabila Popal states that tariff fluctuations are currently just “background noise” for most manufacturers, and that manufacturers should maintain their production and diversification plans to meet demand. Popal adds that growth is expected to be 3.6 percent in the US, 6.5 percent in the Middle East and Africa, and 0.8 percent in Asia-Pacific (excluding China), while the Chinese market will experience a 1 percent decline.

According to the report, the period until 2029 is also quite positive for the phone market. This growth is attributed to the growing interest in foldable phones and the availability of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) features in almost every device.

Anthony Scarsella of IDC estimates that more than 370 million GenAI-enabled smartphones will be shipped globally by 2025, representing 30 percent of the market. As their use expands, AI features are expected to be integrated into more mid-range devices, reaching a market share exceeding 70 percent by 2029.

For the foldable phone market, IDC predicts growth of 6 percent in 2025. This represents an increase above the 2 percent growth rate in 2024, with growth expected to reach 6 percent again in 2026 and 11 percent in 2027.

So, what are your thoughts on this? Share your thoughts in the comments.