Led by technology giants like IBM and Google, quantum computers are poised to move beyond experimental laboratories and enter everyday life. These two companies aim to produce machines with millions of qubits, capable of computations beyond those of supercomputers, by the end of this decade.
The quantum computer era is approaching
IBM’s quantum leader, Jay Gambetta, said in an interview, “It doesn’t feel like a dream anymore. I feel like we’ve truly cracked the code and will be able to build this machine by the end of the decade.” However, this journey is fraught with significant engineering challenges. Oskar Painter, quantum hardware development leader at Amazon Web Services, estimates that building a practical quantum computer could take 15 to 30 years.
Today’s quantum prototypes typically use fewer than 200 qubits. Industrial machines require millions of qubits. However, adding more qubits increases noise and interference in the system, making reliable computations more difficult. IBM’s 433-qubit Condor chip has highlighted this problem. IBM solved this problem by redesigning the connections between chips.
Google aims to reduce component costs tenfold and allocate a budget of $1 billion for a full-scale quantum computer. The company is working on quantum error correction methods, which are key to scalability.
These systems can tolerate problems caused by faulty qubits. Google has developed a chip using surface code, a technique where qubits are connected in a two-dimensional grid. IBM is working on codes that could reduce the need for quantum bits by 90 percent, but require more complex connections.
Currently, the most advanced technology in quantum computers is the superconducting circuit qubits used in IBM and Google’s machines. These systems operate at temperatures near absolute zero and are extremely difficult to control. Other approaches include more stable methods such as trapped ions, neutral atoms, and photons.
Companies like Amazon and Microsoft are exploring exotic states of matter to develop more reliable qubits. While these next-generation technologies are currently in their early stages, they could surpass today’s quantum machines in the future.
The growing interest in quantum computers has also attracted the attention of investors and government agencies. Last year, the Pentagon’s research agency, DARPA, launched a review to identify quantum technologies with the potential for rapid industrial application.
