Many analysts on Wall Street have revised down Tesla’s first-quarter 2025 delivery expectations. The estimates, based on February data and early March registration figures, suggest Tesla could deliver around 350,000 vehicles during that period.

Tesla’s sales to decline in Q1 2025

Barclays analyst Dan Levy released a report predicting Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries will be around 350,000. That figure would be a 10% decrease from the same period in 2024 and a 30% decrease from the previous quarter.

Levy said he made the estimate based on data from January and February and initial readings from early March. The estimate, which falls well short of market expectations of around 400,000, is having a negative impact on Tesla’s stock.

Morgan Stanley also released an analysis on Thursday, predicting that Tesla will deliver 351,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, lowering its previous estimate by exactly 64,000 units. One of the biggest factors in Tesla’s decline in deliveries is the decrease in exports from China.

Barclays states that the company’s global inventory is at the level of 70 to 80,000 vehicles and that there may be a stock decrease of approximately 20,000 units. Similarly, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s projected delivery figure for 2025 from 2.3 million to 1.8 million. Rakesh said that the weakening in demand and uncertainties in market conditions were effective in this revision.

Tesla shares have lost 41.5% since the beginning of the year. According to many analysts, although the company has difficulties in short-term delivery performance, it has the potential to maintain its market share in the long term. So what do you think about this?